‘The Black Swan’ author is really afraid of what’s happening to the U.S. dollar

JPMorgan Chase & Co. will deliver gold bullion valued at more than $4 billion against futures contracts in New York this February. This substantial delivery, amounting to approximately 30 million troy ounces, marks one of the largest on record since 1994. ( uk.finance.yahoo.com ) The move is largely driven by escalating concerns over potential import tariffs. President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, effective February 1, 2025. These tariffs are part of a broader strategy to finance extended tax cuts and pressure European nations to increase defense spending. ( theguardian.com ) In anticipation of these tariffs, there's been a global rush to ship gold to the U.S. Traders have moved nearly 400 metric tonnes of gold to New York's Comex exchange, increasing its inventory by 75% to 926 tonnes—the highest since August 2022. This surge has led to a shortage in London, with withdrawal times from the Bank of England's vaults extending to four to eight weeks. ( ft.com ) The tariffs have also impacted global stock markets. Major indices in the U.S., Europe, and Asia have faced significant declines due to fears of a global trade war. Oil prices have surged, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened against multiple currencies, including reaching a 20-year high against the Canadian dollar. ( theguardian.com ) Despite these concerns, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has downplayed the potential negative effects of the tariffs, suggesting that people should "get over it" and highlighting potential benefits for national security. He acknowledged that while tariffs might prompt a global trade war and increase U.S. inflation, they could also protect American interests and serve as an economic tool. ( barrons.com ) In summary, JPMorgan’s unprecedented gold movement reflects the broader impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade. Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against inflation, stock market turmoil, and currency risks. As economic uncertainty rises, gold’s role as a safe-haven asset becomes even more critical.